Water AlliesTier 2
at CMB Regionals
decks
2
(3.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
7-3-2
overall winrate
66.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.4%
avg ELO +0.2 per match
expected value
52.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1417
· median 1417
· range 1284–1549
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
937
Q1 1162
Q3 1353
1750
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 14.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.6% | +5.7 |
| Water Fractal | 11.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 31.2% | -18.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.6% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 58.2% | +6.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.4% | -17.0 |
| Fire Exia | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.9% | +4.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Zander | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.8 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Diao Chan | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.5% | +4.1 |
| Water Zander | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
